Dial Square Soccer Thread

[DialSquares]

1-3-1 -1.46 units to start posting here...crazy amount of red cards in my games. With a lifetime record of 7-153 with game involving a red card i figured i was in trouble..haha..felt bad for rangers but that first red card was a real dumb move so perhaps they deserved to go out...tough udinese draw for the Gunners..without any real moves outside of gervinho going to be tough.

dangerous game betting the -1 on favs all the time but i do like two of them today in German II.

German Bundesliga II
Dusseldorf v Ingolstadt
Dusseldorf -1 +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

St pauli v ingolstadt
St Pauli -1 +114 - 0.86 to win 1 unit

i think both home sides should have an easy enough time today...perhaps a win and a push as it is always tough to get 2 goal wins in german II. Dusseldorf have been the best home side in the bundesliga II for the last two season and so far 1-0 with a win vs promotional hopeful bochum. I think dussseldorf have a decent shot at promotion if they can figure out the road game a bit better. Ingolstadt do sneak draws on the road often enough but the bigger clubs tend to win (at least last season) dussel. won last year at home 3-1 vs ingolstadt...St Pauli beat them 2-0 at home and i see a similar score today..to me betting for dusseldorf at home has been great over the years and no really reason not to back them today.

As for St Pauli - i wonder if promotion is in the works but the start of the season has gone well winning 2-0 at home and drawing to a tough e. frankfurt on the road. Aachen have struggled out the gate and should be desperate for something today. I watched the game vs Braunschweig and Aachen was definitely out of sorts...they haven't fixed it looking at the results in a friendly and a cup game. This one might push but i do think st pauli should previal in the end.

As for the paderborn match, good start for paderborn and coming off a 10-0 cup win they will be confident. Union out of the cup and got smoked at home 4-0 vs furth so confidence might be low. You can't really bet solely of confidence and 2 games in isn't enough to tell if union is a bust so no bet.

 

[DialSquares]

not much time but the odds in brazil b look a bit off...perhaps i got tricked and i have been staying away from brazil but ....

Brazil Serie B
Paraná Clube v Grêmio Prudente
Paraná Clube -0.75 - 120 - 1.20 to win 1 unit

gl ... sorry no reasoning but parana with a nice home record and sitting 3rd vs a team that has struggled on the road this year. Draw and win vs Sao and Duques recently are good but they did come against bottom of the table team. Ponte Preta won 2-0 so why not parana? haha..good reasoning there.

 

[DialSquares]

German Bundesliga II
Energie Cottbus v TSV 1860 München
over 2.5, 3.0 +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
h2h does not yield an over but both are 2-0 on the over 2.5 goals..both to score pays just 1.66 and i plus the bookies like both to score bet. Hopefully we can get off any 1-1 scoreline early and get a 4-5 goal game.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Dynamo Dresden
Furth -1 +104 - 0.96 to win 1 unit
i think furth is finally going push into a promotion spot and beating teams like dresden is a must. Furth blew a 2-0 lead and conceeded very late to lose 2-3 to e. frankfurt in week one. since then 4-0 win vs Union and a 10-0 cup win. Dresden with a shocking cup win vs levenkausen and perhaps will provide confidence but i think they will struggle like more promotional teams on the road. Cottbus beat them at home and furth should really do the job as well..perhaps a push

 

[DialSquares]

didn't really like any german II matches in the morning ...

FA Community Shield
Man United v Man City
over 2, 2.5 goals +102 -0.98 to win 1 unit
this game tends to be over friendly but not so much involving man united..but 1-1 is also a common score for them in the cup so 1/2 loser wouldn't be all that bad. For what it is worth the last 3 cup matches between these teams have gone over...showcase of talent game more than a defensive match and both teams have plenty of that..not to mention new blood eager to score early for their team. I think stats/trends can get chucked out of the window for matches like this and probably the wise move is not to bet but early in the betting season so i'm not quite ready to practice the proper disclipine...plenty of time to learn that lesson once again this year..haha...2-1 city i think

 

[DialSquares]

5-4-2 +1.34 units

Monday August 8th

Sweden Superettan
Sundsvall v Landskrona
Sundsvall -1 -105 - 1.05 to win 1 unit
Landskrona have won the last 2 matches H2H in Sundsvall but perhaps it is a good time for sundsvall to end this streak. Landskrona lost on the road 3-1 and 5-1 to Varnamo and Falkenberg. 4 straigth home wins for Sundsvall including wins vs Falkenbergs and Degerfors. Unpredictable league and landskrona should have confidence they can get a result but form and the fact Sundsvall have to a promotional candidate they should at least win today.

Norway Tippeligaen
Start v Haugesund.
over 3 goals -134 - 1.34 to win unit
i have no problem if someone wants to take haugesund +0.25 but start is desperate for a win and haugesund have 7 losses in 9 road games. Start with 6 overs(2.5 goals) in 9 home matches and it is hard to imagine they will keep a clean sheet. Both clubs have played 4 straight games with at least 3 goals. I really think Start will surprise some and win but more like 3-2 3-1...i hope so anyway.

working on a 3rd game..german II most likely but not sure what the play is right now.

GL

 

[DialSquares]

nice wonderstrike for the 4th goal in norway...totally missed the boat with the side but not the bet....not much time 'til kickoff in germany so just a pick

German Budesliga II
Hansa Rostock v Bochum
over 2.5 goals +112 - 0.88 to win 1 unit
Bochum DNB +106 - 0.94 to win 1 unit

1-2 bochum would work really well....i always like backing promotion sides at home early in german II but not this hansa team...bochum should really contend for promotion and perhaps the home win vs frankfurt was the start...1-2 2-2 something like that....

 

[DialSquares]

being carling cup and very unpredictible i am going 1/2 unit bets today ... no reasoning because there is no reason to bet 1st round carling cup games...

Tuesday August 9th
England Carlng Cup
Bournemouth v Dagenham & Redbridge
Bournemouth -125 - 0.63 to win 0.5 units

Brighton & Hove Albion v Gillingham
Brighton & Hove Albion -1 -122 - 0.61 to win 0.5 unit

Southampton v Torquay United
Southampton -1, -1.5 -117 - 0.59 to win 0.5 unit

Leeds United v Bradford City
Leeds United -1, -1.5 -115 -0.58 to win 0.5 unit

Stevenage v Peterborough United
Over 2.75 goals -105 -0.53 to win 1 unit

i know ultra favs winning is always tough esp in the cup matches but my cup strategy just happened to pick them today...hopefully i don't get burnt because i learnt that lesson a few years ago...well..maybe not...but 0.5 units so the burn wouldn't be so bad if it comes.

GL..

 

[TheKid13]

Dial Squares: Do you handicap EPL? And are you going to be posting through the season?

 

[DialSquares]

i find the lower leagues of england to be easier to predict than the EPL - i do take a look at the EPL and will place bets when i really like it..no plays week 1 though and i never bet for/against the Arsenal Football club...

 

[DialSquares]

Friday August 12th
German Bundesliga II
Karlsruher SC v Eintracht Braunschweig
over 2.5 goals -120 - 1.20 to win 1 unit
crazy mad love for this play but disciplined enough to 1 unit bet it...very tempted to 2 unit bet but too early for those rare plays. Braunschweig has shown that they can score and although last season in german III and 1 game this year they are a solid road team. Karls. played 2 over in 3 matches with last round being a 2-0 road win...1-2 and 3-2 vs 1860 Muncich and Duisburg. not sure karlsruhe deserves to be favoured so much and i think road team will win..but both to score pays around -167 and although 1-1 draws are frequent i don't see it here...2-1 1-2 and on a good day 4-5 goals.

the union berlin game match is tough..union have been inconsistent to start the year and i always think promotional teams start at home wwll and i could see a home win today...but Union was very impressive last round so tough call. So no bet and maybe something for the later II game.

GL

 

[DialSquares]

French II
SC Bastia v Le Mans FC
over 2 goals -133 - 1.33 to win 1 unit

Laval v US Boulogne
over 2 goals -136 - 1.36 to win 1 unit

a bit short on both but very tough to get 2 goals in ligue II let alone 3...pick and choosing the right games can work in french deux and hopefully does today..but 1-0 0-0 games will kill you in the long run betting overs...i really like the bastia over though....

GL

 

[DialSquares]

Saturday August 13th
German Bundesliga II
Aachen v Energie Cottbus
over 3 goals -102 -1.02 to win 1 unit
Aachen needs a win but are conceeding far too many goals to back them outright...but the over looks pretty good. Both teams had 14 overs in 17 matches home/away last season and their h2h match ended 2-3. Both to score pays a lowly -225 and i don't see aachen nor cottbus happy with a draw...that 4th goal might be hard to get but this should at least push.

Paderborn V Greuther Furth
under 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
prior to last season paderborn v furth played 3 games that ended 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0. Furth won 0-4 last season but a 35th min red card may have had something to do with that...(it was 0-0 at the time). Furth last season just 6 overs in 17 road matches Furth 1st road game was an over but that was mostly a brutal display by Union. This really looks like a 1-0 0-1 game...hopefully no early red card this time

 

[chriscol]

great write ups...see itthe same way, but think the aachen match might end on 3..i will go with cottbus in that one.
BOL

 

[DialSquares]

very dull 1st half .. the Aachen game was lucky to get 1 goal to be honest...not sure what aachen are doing right now and an easy fade team next round i think....1-1 in the early a.m.

no time for reasoning and i will point out very early in the season(s) so a little bit of guesswork still..


German Bundesliga I
FC Nürnberg v Hannover 96
FC Nürnberg 0, -0.5 -110 -1.10 to win 1 unit

Hamburger SV v Hertha BSC
Hamburger SV -0.5 +108 - 0.92 to win 1 unit

SC Freiburg v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Mainz Draw No Bet aka pick +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
(probably -125 in most books)

english bets to come soon...i will say no EPL bets but why liverpool is -1 is beyond me....i think sunderland will win outright but shouldn't lose by 2+ at worst...no bet though

 

[DialSquares]

English Championship
Leeds United v Middlesbrough
over 2.5 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
based mostly on friendlies and a cup match so not much to go on

Millwall v Nottingham Forest
Millwall 0, -0.5 +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit

Watford V Derby County
Watford -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit

England - League One
Exeter C. V Milton Keynes Dons
Both Teams to Score: YES -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
(i'd bet the over if the BTS not available)

Bournemouth V Sheffield Wednesday
Bournemouth Draw No Bet aka Pick -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit

Rochdale V Huddersfield T.
Huddersfield Town 0, -0.5 -109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit

that's 11 plays with the german II games...umm..i think i'm just exicited about EPL starting...5-4 would be fine by me today. A little too many today i think...

GL - i know i need it...

 

[DialSquares]

not much time right now and i should update my record tomorrow...not a very good day saturday...seemed late goals and the lack of them hurt but the plan is to get it back sunday .. haha...

Sunday August 14th
German Bundesliga II
FC Ingolstadt 04 v FSV Frankfurt
Frankfurt +0.5 - +109 - 0.91 to win 1 unit

MSV Duisburg v Hansa Rostock
over 2.5 goals -116 -1.16 to win 1 unit

TSV 1860 München v FC Erzgebirge Aue
over 2.5 goals +110 -0.90 to win 1 unit

i think all 3 have a decent shot at going overs tomorrow but i like frankfurt to win a bit more...at least draw.

i wonder which one chelsea or united lose tomorrow...i'll be happy with both

 

[DialSquares]

Updated Record: 18-15-4 +1.98 units

Monday August 15th
Holland Eredivisie
NEC v S.B.V Excelsior
NEC -1 -144 - 1.44 to win 1 unit
-144 is about as high of a juice i'd pay and i don't really mind the -1.25. Excelsior started the year with a 0-2 home defeat to Feyenoord. NEC beat Excelsior 2-0 last season and i see a similar score today. Excelsior struggled last year on the road losing 12 matches in 17 games. NEC are no Dutch giant (hence the -1 bet) but a very good friendly season and a nice road draw vs Heerenveen in round 1. Too early to know but Excelsior barely escaped relegation last year and it will be battle to avoid it again...esp when playing on the road. 2-0 home side...

German Bundesliga II
Eintracht Frankfurt v Fortuna Düsseldorf
Eintracht Frankfurt -116 - 1.16 to win 1 unit
Eintracht Frankfurt -1.5 +210 - 0.24 to win 0.5 unit
big fan of E Frankfurt here. I know Dusseldorf started the season 2 wins and a draw but 2 wins came at home (one win vs Ingolstadt) and the draw was against Paderborn. E. Frankfurt on the other hand won on the road vs a tough Furth side, beat a rather high flying promotion Braunschweig (0-3) on the road and drew to fellow relegation team St Pauli. Both teams with the same record but imo E. Frankfurt much more impressive so far. Dusseldorf main problem is their road play - 10 losses in 10-11 and 9 lossed in 09-10. A little early to know if Dusseldorf have solved their road issues but there is no doubt E. Frankfurt have accepted the II role and are playing good football. (the -1.5 might be a bit too much though)

Sweden Allsvenskan
IFK Norrköping v AIK
AIK 0, -0.5 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit
AIK are coming off 2 straight lossed but agianst two tough teams in Elfsborg and IFK Gothenberg. A road win would see them jump back into a Europe spot. Prior to the 2 losses they knocked out 6 straight impressive wins including 3 on the road..those 3 wins coming against bottom half teams much like Norrkoping. Norrkoping with 2 straight home wins yet there were against bottom table teams so I am not sure they've turned it around...Helsingborg and Gothenberg only managed draws in Norrkoping so it will be tough but i think AIK should win with the 1/2 lost on a draw.

GL today...and go SWANSEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DialSquares]

prior to england and the champions league there is a couple of games that is hard to avoid in my world in German III

Tuesday August 16th
Germany 3.Liga
Heidenheim v Carl Zeiss Jena
1. FC Heidenheim -1 -109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
Jena is one of those teams that will come out and whoop a team it shouldn't but then lose a bunch in a row for no reason either so it is always hard to bet for/against them. But Heidenheim has started off the year brilliantly...winning 3 and drawing 1 in league play and beating I Bundesliga Werder Bremen in the cup game. Heidenheim have won the last 2 H2H at home. Carl Jena have lost both league road games and just 1 win in 4 games to start the year. Still early to know if Heidenheim start is due to playing weaker opponents (all 3 wins came against teams currently 14th or worst)...but jena is in the bottom as well and are struggling early on the road.

1. FC Saarbrücken v Werder Bremen II
1. FC Saarbrücken -1 -111 - 1.11 to win 1 unit
same story as the top game...Saar started slow(ish) but have won 2 straight including 2-1 home win vs Jena and have 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 games. Werder II with 1 draw in 4 and only scoring 3 goals. Werder barely escaped relegation last year and so far have to be a candidate this year. 1-0 last year and i think same type of game...

midweek is challenge and a little early to be doubting teams but going by last year and the start of this year 1 of the 2 games (if not both) should previal.

GL

 

[DialSquares]

UEFA Champions League
FC BATE Borisov v SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz
over 2, 2.5 goals -112 - 1.12 to win 1 unit

i actualy like home teams across the board but i think plzen gets underestimated and perhaps Kazan ekes out a draw. In any case i don't like anything else enough to back with a punt....arsenal 5-0 though..haha..j/k

---
start of the year and midweek makes for a bad combo for us stat bettors so i'm skipping England today. So that's it.

 

[DialSquares]

well copied and pasted the wrong game for the first time this year....that should have been the twente game and a winner...i have no idea what over 2.25 paid in the BATE game. I'm counting it as 1/2 loser though...sorry to anyone that followed this pick...too bad walcott couldn't score that late 2nd goal.